Back To Gaza


	BOTH SIDES CLAIM VICTORY & ASSESS BLAME


	Any US Marine who was there will tell you what the Gaza Operation might look like on the ground... Remember Fallujah


	Hamas to give Israel one week to withdraw

As the Palestinian death toll climbing above 1100, with 40% of the casualties women and children, Israel began the media spin on its “victory” in Gaza. Iran’s Ahamdinejad congratulated his Hamas proxies in Gaza. The Saudis lamented the excessive use of force by Israel. Egypt’s Mubarak, who refused to close the smuggling and supply tunnels or allow international observers there, smugly said Hamas brought the pain on itself. Hamas vowed to keep building “holy weapons.” Israel stated it would treat any arms smuggling as a violation of the cease fire, setting a a sure fire trip wire for more violence. What has changed? The dead will be buried and mourned, the enmity deepened, and they will do it all again one day. Nothing was decided, nothing resolved, and all the lead Israel cast at Gaza the last twenty days has bought it little more than a sliver of time before the next outbreak of violence.

Operation “Cast Lead” - Day By Day

NOTE: This post has been reorganized in chronological order to cover each day of the ground offensive.

Street Fighting “Operation Phantom Fury” at Fallujah

The US Marines, with Iraqi and U.S. Army support, launched “Operation Phantom Fury” in the Second Battle of Fallujah, Nov 8, 2004. The city of 300,000 was largely abandoned, and intelligence estimated that perhaps 3000 enemy insurgents remained to oppose the US advance. On the eve of the battle the military boasted that: "We have the largest concentration of firepower on earth here." In the words of Brigadier General Denis Hajlik, Commander of the 1st MEF: “We are gearing up for a major operation. If we do so, it will be decisive and we will whack them.” Sound familiar?

In the darkness preceding the attack, US and Iraqi forces seized the two bridges over the Euphrates on the western end of the city, and the hospital there. They wanted to make sure that the civilian casualty numbers were not ‘over reported’ to control public opinion of the battle. Meanwhile, as air strikes and attack cobras continued the battlefield “shaping operation,” at the eastern end of the city a massive “breach and penetration” operation was being mounted. This consists of a series of aimed high explosive charges that are capable of clearing and leveling an entire city block. (The Israelis will have to mount a similar operation to clear hidden explosives and mines in their chosen entry zones to the Gaza strip.) A barrage of smoke was then fired, and the cleared breach was penetrated by a shock column of heavy armor and Bradley AFV mounted infantry dubbed "Taskforce 2-2" from the First Infantry Division.

After the diversionary attack on Dec 7, the coalition forces then lined up six infantry and two heavy armored battalions along the north edge of the city. 10,000 Marines assumed final battle positions and launched a massive assault from the north, with the city divided into slices assigned to each battalion as it swept south along carefully divided zones. By the evening of November 9, 2004, Marines were reportedly along Highway 10 in the center of the city. There were claims that US forces used white phosphorous and incendiary MK-77 bombs, a napalm like weapon, during the fighting. After nine days the resistance was largely broken, but Marine units remained until December 23rd, still patrolling and mopping up the last pockets of resistance, and still dying there.

In urban street fighting each building can become an ambush. It is some of the most difficult and deadly work an infantryman will ever face. Combat teams advance, covered by sniper fire and heavy arms from tanks and armored carriers, but once inside a building, every room, stairwell and closet can be a death trap. There were hundreds of booby trapped explosives, and countless fire-fights meeting the Marines in Fallujah. Too many young lives ended there in what the US thought would be a decisive battle in Anbar province. Two years later, the province was almost entirely controlled by the Sunni insurgency. The US was forced to change strategies and enlist the support of the Sunnis as the ethnic violence in Iraq escalated. In effect, there was no military solution.

The result: 20% of the 50,000 buildings in the city were destroyed by the fighting, including 60 of 200 mosques, and very few of the remaining buildings escaped damage. Over 200,000 former city residents became displaced refugees. An estimated 6,000 civilians died in the operation, and almost all the 3000 insurgent defenders. Months later, only 10% of the population had returned, all biometrically tagged and databased. The cost to the coalition was 82 US soldiers and Marines who died in November and December at Fallujah.

The city was 5 kilometers long, and 3 kilometers wide, defended by 3000 insurgents, where perhaps no more than 500 were hard core with any training. The US threw eight battalions and elements of many others, along with 6 Iraqi battalions into the operation. Marines were in the city 55 days and experienced some of the toughest fighting since Hue in the Viet Nam war.

Now consider that Gaza is over 10 kilometers deep and forty kilometers long, about ten times the size of Fallujah. (Gaza City alone in the north of the strip is the size of Fallujah, and probably the place Hamas will make its final stand.) It will be defended by 15,000 to 20,000 Hamas fighters, and perhaps thousands more new recruits, a force ten times larger than what the Marines faced at Fallujah. There are one and a half million civilians there, with no way to evacuate.

Do you begin to understand why Israel hesitates to launch a major ground operation there, and the severe cost such an operation would entail if pressed to any decisive conclusion? This is why I feel there can be no truly decisive military action there. The cost would simply be too high.

Day 7 - (Jan 2) - The Jerusalem Post quoted Maj. General Eiland: "If the idea is to deter attacks, then you don't need a ground operation," said Eiland. "If, however, you want to destroy Hamas's ability to fire rockets, then you need to invade Gaza," he said. "The problem here is that the political establishment has not decided which course it wants to follow."

The notion that Israel has not determined this before launching its blistering 6 day aerial bombardment is absurd. This operation has been two years in the making, with a dress rehearsal last year in “Hot Winter.” This conjures up the worst of the 2006 Lebanon affair, which saw the ground forces bruised upon entry, and summarily withdrawn in short order. Hezbollah is now stronger than ever in the north. Is this incompetence? No. What we are seeing here is the sober realization, rising through the smoke of the bunker busters, that war has a severe cost.

Hamas did not fold and sue for peace under Israel’s blistering bombardment. Nor has it been deterred by the air campaign in any way, as rocket attacks continued even as Israeli ground forces massed on the border. Attacks increased as soon as the Israelis crossed into Gaza. The political leadership may have realized that tough talk is cheap, but real war is expensive. This enemy will fight. The price of a ground war in Gaza will be high, and it is one Israel appears increasingly reluctant to pay. When will Western armies realize that, for all their might, they cannot impose their will on an enemy who is willing to die to oppose them? The lessons of Lebanon, of Fallujah, of Iraq, have yet to be learned. Will they have to be learned again in Gaza?

Even the Sunni Arab nations, so quick to condemn Israel publicly, know what the cost of failure is likely to be--a resurgent Hamas and strengthened political position for Shia Iran as US influence wanes in the region. Haaretz.com reported: “In the past few days, Israel received almost identical signals from several moderate Arab states, formulated in language very different from the public condemnations they have issued recently: Go in if you must, but don't dare fail, they said.”

The prospect of failure is very real, and the reason we saw such hesitation to begin the ground war in Gaza.

Day 8 - (Jan 3) - After a barrage of artillery fire Israeli troops finally crossed in to Gaza "in order to greatly reduce the quantity of rockets fired at Israel and Israeli civilians," according to the IDF. This is a carefully parsed statement, and far afield from the invocations of ”all out war” that we heard earlier in the conflict. Israel knows it cannot afford the price of all out war with Hamas, but it will do what it can to punish them and then withdraw, declaring victory.

Haaretz reported: “The invasion was preceded by the firing of artillery shells into the strip from military preparation sites dotted along the Gaza-Israel border. The artillery fire aimed to detonate Hamas explosive devices and mines planted along the border area before troops marched in. Palestinian witnesses said the artillery barrage caused a large explosion in Gaza City as well as a series of blasts stitching the nearby frontier with Israel.”

A lengthy operation was planned to root out tunnel systems, weapons caches and rocket launching sites in the enclave. “It will not be easy and it will not be short,” said Barak on national TV as the operation began. Exiled Hamas leader Mashaal spoke from an undisclosed location in Damascus and promised Israeli soldiers a “black fate” in Gaza. Another spokesman was more eloquent: “Gaza will not be paved with flowers for you, it will be paved with fire and hell.” In initial clashes on the ground, however, the IDF claimed 30 Hamas gunman were killed by Israeli infantry in the early hours of the ground operation.

In spite of the incursion, 20 rockets struck Israel by mid-day Saturday.

Day 9 - (Jan 4) - After a fierce gun battle against entrenched Hamas fighters in the border region, Israeli troops pushed deeper into the Gaza Strip, cutting the enclave in two and surrounding Gaza City in the north. (See map above)

Armor and engineers with bulldozers pushed into Gaza and advanced to the former Israeli settlement of Nezarim (Netzarim) where they are now forming up south of Gaza City. Elements of the Golani and Givati Infantry Brigades moved to seal off the city. In the north the Golani Brigade moved house to house through the town of Jabaliyah, using explosives to blow holes in walls as they advanced from room to room. A mortar round killed one Israeli soldier and injured thirty others in this operation in some of the heaviest ground fighting thus far, Hamas claimed it had captured two Israeli soldiers, but the IDF denied this. 50 rockets pounded Southern Israel in spite of the ground advance, which has yet to enter the heavily urbanized areas of Gaza City.

Beit Hanoun in the north was reportedly captured along with parts of the Zeitun refugee camp. In the south, additional operations were aimed at clearing or destroying supply tunnels in the Philadelphi region near the Egyptian border. The Palestinian death toll climbed above 500, with a reported 2600 injured, mostly civilians. Israeli casualties include 4 dead from rocket attacks and one soldier lost thus far.

[Note: Israeli casualties are on par with what the US suffered in Fallujah on day one of that ground operation (See Sidebar) when only one US Marine was killed on Dec 8. But US casualties mounted when they entered the heart of the city and began rooting out resistance fighters. 9 marines died on the 2nd day , 6 the following day, and then casualties were spread in twos and threes throughout the whole of the 55 days Marines were in the city. 82 died there in November and December, 2004.]

Day 10 - (Jan 5) - Heavy fighting was reported on the ground in and around Gaza City as Israeli troops began to enter the more urbanized terrain there. Three soldiers were killed and twenty-four were reported wounded near Sajaiyeh in northern Gaza, among them the commander of the Golani Brigade and the 13th battalion commander of that Brigade as well. The troops reportedly came under intense mortar fire from Hamas, and took refuge in a nearby house, which was then hit by “an errant tank shell” according to the IDF. This sounds a bit odd. Brigade commanders are generally not on the front line where errant tank shells could hit them. I’m more inclined to think Hamas scored a mortar hit on this position.

Israeli web site Debka characterized the ground fighting as a counterattack mounted by Hamas that was eventually driven back inside the urban city area by Israeli firepower from helicopter gunships. It remains to be seen if Israeli ground forces have pushed into the city. Low casualty rates would seem to indicate they have not done so in any sizable force. Another 12 Israeli soldiers were wounded in various exchanges of fire with Hamas fighters bringing the day’s casualty toll to 3 dead 36 wounded for the IDF. Several of the wounded were said to be in serious condition.

The IDF has yet to enter the city in force, but a top Israeli officer claimed his men have been well trained for urban warfare at the army’s Ground Forces Command Urban Training Center, where mockups of refugee camps, outlying buildings and the more heavily built up areas have been staged. All units deployed underwent training at this facility in the past year, showing that Israel has had this operation in mind for some time. (The training began 6 months before the cease fire with Hamas!) Nonetheless, the operation has now moved to the phase the Germans came to call “rattenkrieg” in Stalingrad, (war of the rats), where house to house, room to room fighting can be very costly if the Israelis enter Gaza City itself. At present, Israeli troops have been probing the outskirts, waiting for a reaction from Hamas, and then pulverizing the area with firepower.

The cost is also borne heavily by innocent Palestinian civilians. Amos Harel of Haaretz reported: “When an Israeli force gets into an entanglement, as in Sajaiyeh last night, massive fire into built-up areas is initiated to cover the extraction. In other cases, a chain of explosions is initiated from a distance to set off Hamas booby-traps. It is a method that leaves a swath of destruction taking in entire streets, and does not distinguish military targets from the homes of civilians.” There have been numerous stories of families caught in the crossfire, unable to seek medical help for their loved ones. One family of seven was wiped out by a single Israeli shell which struck their home at Beach Refugee Camp near Gaza, according to Israeli news Haaretz. (I don’t suppose that incident was rehearsed at the training center.) Another woman lost five daughters earlier in the conflict. UN Officials stated that as many as 25% of the 500+ dead were civilians.

The war of words also continued as Iran claimed it now had 70,000 suicide bombers enlisted to strike Israel. It is interesting, however, that neither Iran, Syria or Hezbollah in the north have raised a finger to aid Hamas or their Palestinian brethren in Gaza.

Day 11 - (Jan 6) - Another Israeli soldier died this morning, along with 46 Palestinians, (all civilians at a UN sponsored school where hundreds had taken refuge from the fighting.) The grim reality of operation “Cast Lead” was becoming more and more apparent. Israel had closed up around the concrete fortress of Gaza City, probed its perimeter, and pulled back a bloodied hand. The claim that the incompetence of an “errant tank shell” caused half the IDF casualties was no solace. The fact is this: Israel knows it cannot enter Gaza in force with the aim of rooting out the estimated 15,000 Hamas gunmen defending there. If the present casualty rate is any indication, the price would be far more costly than anyone now imagines.

Israel’s strategy appears to be an attempt to lure Hamas into kill zones on the perimeter of the city by probing with tanks and infantry and waiting for Hamas to react to the incursion. Then heavy firepower is called in to blast the defenders, but the cagey enemy has not obliged. There is now talk that the “operation” may run its course in the next three days, The US State Department call for an end to the fighting was a strong indicator that there will be no decisive engagement to solve the problem by military means in Gaza. Over 600 people had to die to re-learn this lesson. I cannot imagine what the IDF thought it could actually accomplish, and can only write the whole of “Cast Lead” off to chest thumping bravado in the face of a defiant Hamas.

The lesson of Fallujah (see sidebar) was ample evidence of the cost of any major operation in Gaza. That town was largely emptied of its civilian population before the US attack that ended up claiming the lives of 82 US marines and soldiers, and 9000 Iraqis, (6000 of them civilians). In Gaza City a force of Hamas fighters five times the size of Fallujah’s defending force will fight in and among 800,000 civilians! It was madness to ever contemplate that even the mighty Israeli Defense Force could “solve the problem” with a ground operation there.

There is now speculation that a deal is being hammered out that would involve a new cease fire along present lines, introduction of UN sponsored troops from Jordan and Egypt, and a pledge by Hamas to cease rocket attacks on Israel in exchange for a end to the strangling economic siege Gaza has been subjected to the last year. This was, in fact, the reason for the rocket attacks in the first place, and I would call “Cast Lead” a strategic victory for Hamas if this happens. And the great barb in all of this is that a “deal” like this could have been achieved by diplomacy at any time. Israel will claim it had to force Hamas to the bargaining table with the violence we have witnessed to date.

Day 12-13 (Jan 7-8) - A three hour lull in the fighting was declared on Jan 7th to allow for humanitarian relief to reach Gaza, as war weary civilians mourned their dead relatives and children. A mass funeral for those killed at the UN school got much deserved coverage, though it is precisely the sort of “news” Israel tried to keep from reaching Western media by banning press coverage during the operation.

In the south near Rafa on the Egyptian border, Israel “notified” civilians via leaflets to flee from their homes. Apparently Hamas had tunnels in the area, and to “solve the problem” Israel issued an abrupt warning to evacuate before turning its vaunted air force lose. Homes were destroyed by bombing, with 800 former residents now destitute, refugees within a vast ghetto of refugees called the Gaza Strip. Ironically, they sought shelter in a UN School.

There was much talk of a cease fire, with up to ten different sponsored versions floating about. Eventually negotiators from the “Big Five” on the UN Security Council announced agreement on a resolution to that effect, though it remains to be seen if the warring parties will abide by the resolution. Both Hamas and Israel again strongly stated their bottom line positions. Hamas demanded a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza Strip and a lifting of the economic blockade. Israel insisted on an end to the rocket attacks, and closure of the smuggling routes along the Egyptian border. One must wonder why Egypt permits such traffic, but sympathy for the Palestinians in Gaza is perhaps a good reason. Meanwhile, the official Palestinian death toll climbed above 765, and Israel lost its 10th soldier in the brief ground action.

Haaretz reported that the Chief of General Staff's Operations Directorate Major General Tal Russo stated on Jan 8: “It's doubtful if it is possible to bring about regime change in the Gaza Strip solely by force.” It’s also a pity that he and other Israeli leaders could not come to that conclusion before the death toll began to mount on both sides. What, then, was the point of all this violence?

Day 14 - 15 - (Jan 9-10) - The Israeli Air Force dropped leaflets throughout Gaza Strip on Saturday, Jan 10 warning that a “new phase in the war on terror” was about to begin and saying the 15 day old “Operation Cast Lead” was about to escalate. Apparently the Israelis thought they could bring Hamas to its knees, first with air power, and then with the limited ground incursion we have seen thus far, killing 786 Palestinians, and injuring over 3600, mostly civilians. Hamas remains defiant, and still entrenched in Gaza City, where Israel has made no significant advance for the last five days. The war now is as much a test of wills as anything else. When both sides realize the enormous cost in blood that any major advance into Gaza City would cause, they will sober up and begin to compromise.

On the 14th the Israeli air force hit fifty targets overnight ahead of renewed ground operations. One strike flattened a five story building, killing 7. The UN passed its cease fire resolution, and Israel promptly added it to the ever lengthening list of UN resolutions it ignores. Hamas also rejected the resolution, stating it did not meet its demands. The four day “lull” in the fighting now leaves the ball squarely in Israel’s court. With time running out, a new US president waiting in the wings, Israel must decide whether to intensify its ground operation in Gaza City, or frame some other word definition of “victory” to justify this ill conceived operation.

In for a penny in for a pound. Israel has two bits on the table. They must either push “Cast Lead” to a decisive conclusion, and soon, or get out of Gaza and start the post war spin machine in the media. But each step to escalate the operation will find them deeper in the pit they have dug by creating the Gaza Ghetto in the first place. In my view, all eyes are now on Egypt. Only Mubarak can ensure what Israel really wants in this operation, a way to prevent Hamas from rearming and restoring itself to a position where it can again pose a security threat. Egypt can seal its Sinai border, or allow an international force there to prevent arms smuggling. The next few days will decide this question one way or another.

Day 16 - 18 (Jan 11-13) - No significant changes occurred on the ground, though Israel tightened its positions around Gaza City, sometimes probing deeper in night raids. Fighting broke out near Sheikh Ajleen when Israeli troops were ambushed as they advanced. A fierce gun battle ensued, but the Israelis were stopped near the outskirts of the town as a further example of just how difficult it would be to try and push the last few kilometers and clear Gaza City of enemy resistance.

Realizing its blundering offensive is losing ground rapidly in the PR media wars, the leaflet drop Monday said: "The IDF is not working against the people of Gaza but against Hamas and the terrorists only. Stay safe by following our orders." The IDF complained that Hamas was endangering civilians by operating in heavily populated areas. Earth to Israel--this is the way resistance groups have fought for millennium! Israel claims Hamas is using civilians as human shields and booby trapping homes. They forget that insurgent fighters A) do not wear uniforms, B) fight in and among the population and, C) are indeed nothing more than lightly armed “civilians” in the area--they live there.

Israel seems casting about now, trying to find some other way to declare this operation a victory. Its consolation prize on Sunday was the destruction of twenty more smuggling tunnels in the south near the Egyptian border. 40 more Palestinians were killed, mostly civilians, including a family of four who had their home blasted to smithereens by a tank fire.Meanwhile, reservists training at a mock Arab town were now reportedly entering Gaza strip, probably to relieve weary front line regulars who have been in action for nearly ten days. Haaretz reported the IDF was getting impatient: "The army cannot go on like this forever," former National Security Council head, Maj. Gen. (Res.) Giora Eiland, said. "We need to reach a decision: Either reach a cease-fire in two to three days, or start a big military operation that will take at least two weeks. We've been beating around the bush for a week, and we need to make a decision now."

The death toll topped 900 for Palestine, and 23 for Israel, including 10 soldiers--and this is from the minimal ground incursion made, with no significant penetration into heavily built up areas of the cities. In effect, this is the preliminary death toll. Israel has yet to really engage Hamas fighters on the ground with the aim of toppling the regime, which also happens to be Gaza’s democratically elected government.

With a force of some 18,000 Police and about 3500 hard core militant fighters, Hamas has been cagey and focused mainly in maintaining rocket fire as a visible sign of its resistance. They have opposed Israeli incursions and staged ambush attacks, but it remains to be seen if they will make an Alamo-like stand in Gaza City, or try and remain liquid within the population there to fight a longer term resistance. Their choice will determine the casualty levels should Israel escalate the operation. But by Jan 14th, as Hamas accepted the Egyptian backed cease fire, it appeared the game was about to end.

In other news, Russia’s premier aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kusnetsov, arrived in Syrian waters with a small task force about the same time an Iranian supply ship approached Gaza with humanitarian relief. The Israeli navy intercepted the ship, refusing to allow it to enter waters off Gaza.

Day 17 - 20 (Jan 14-15) - Israel claimed it killed the head of Hamas military operations, their Interior Minister and Security Chief in an air strike deep inside Gaza City. At the same time, Israeli paratroopers and commandos pushed into built up areas, triggering intense fighting in several Gaza City neighborhoods, including Tel al-Hawa where terrified residents were trapped in the crossfire. The incursion was accompanied by heavy Israeli artillery fire. Haaretz reported: “Residents were seen fleeing their homes in pajamas, some wheeling elderly parents in wheelchairs. Others were stopping journalists' armored cars or ambulances pleading for someone to take them to safety.”

Israel also claimed that Hamas gunmen fired at them from the UN Headquarters in Gaza, and the UN Relief and Works Agency was promptly shelled by 155mm artillery fire. UN officials expressed their outrage, but Israel has never thought twice about attacking mosques, hospitals, civilian homes or other facilities during the campaign when they identify any military use of those areas. The Palestinian death toll rose to 1055, with 670 civilians included in that number, 40% children. Another 4600 have been injured. 3 Israeli civilians and 10 soldiers have died on their side of the conflict.

World Tribune.com reported today that Hezbollah is moving its command and control centers south to the border zone with Israel, a move that was interpreted as possible preparations for war. A little late now. In fact, would Israel have dared to launch this brutal invasion of Gaza if the “Arab Brethren in states like Egypt, Syria, Iran, and Jordan all mobilized and threatened war? I think not. While I am no friend of radical Islam movements, Israel’s campaign in Gaza has gone well beyond “deterrence.” They’ve bombed hospitals, aid centers, food depots, private homes-- indiscriminately. Cast Lead should end immediately. It has solved nothing.

Day 21 - 22 (Jan 16-17) - Hamas fired an anti tank rocket wounding 9 Israeli soldiers of the Givati Brigade, and another four paratroopers were wounded in what Israel is calling a possible friendly fire incident--the fourth of the operation! But most of the significant developments were in the international arena, where Arab nations suddenly got huffy with Israel and began to register their disapproval by chilling down diplomatic relations. There was talk of how to monitor the border zones to prevent arms smuggling, all without any real agreement between the warring parties. A Hamas representative was reported to have said. "Either we hear what we want or the result will be continuing the confrontation on the ground."

Egyptian President Mubarak stated in an address to the nation that: “Israel must accept an “immediate unconditional ceasefire and a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip.” In effect, he echoed the demands of Hamas. A key party to any solution, Egypt also stated that no international troops would be allowed on its soil for monitoring the border zone. It was clear that Israel was looking to its endgame, and a way out of the conflict. I predict the missiles will keep coming and the whole operation will have achieved nothing more than the destruction of life, property and any hope for real peace in the region.

Israel has seen the very existence of Hamas as a target for destruction ever since the party won power by democratic election in Gaza. Both the US and Israel have sought to undermine Hamas by inflicting collective punishment on the Palestinian refugees in Gaza. The year long economic stranglehold Israel imposed led to the creation of a vast network of smuggling tunnels for food, medicine, fuel and arms. Israel wants Hamas broken and impotent, but the party continues to mount resistance with the pin prick missile attacks that triggered this latest round of violence.

Day 23 (Jan 18) - CEASE FIRE - Israel deftly opted to stop casting lead into Gaza just as President Obama steps into office, and suspended the daily aerial bombing that has contributed to the death of over 1100 Palestinians and the wounding and dismemberment of more than 5000. It paid a surprisingly low cost for this carnage, with 14 dead and perhaps 150 wounded.

Israeli troops began withdrawal even as Kassam and grad rockets continued to fall on Israeli communities in the Negev, the last defiant salvos from Hamas as the cease fire was declared. Hamas stated it would give Israel one week to withdraw. They also repeated their demand that Israel open border crossings and lift its economic strangle hold on the embattled enclave. In effect, Hamas still holds to the same position that started the conflict, and if they don’t get what they want I predict the rocket fire will resume. But for now, at least for a time, the killing has stopped.

“Operation Cast Lead” made no significant incursion into the heart of Gaza City where Hamas pledged to make its last stand. It played out as I predicted, and achieved nothing but the appalling loss of life we have witnessed for the last three weeks.

Background and Commentary

It was called “Operation Cast Lead,” a reference to the 1948 founding of the Jewish state that the Palestinians mark as a time of disaster. As 2008 staggered to a wearisome end, the embattled Jewish state decided to slip in one more lead story line for the world’s news wires, and they cast a lot of lead into Gaza--a couple hundred tons in a few hours time. The conflict between Israel and Gaza has gone on for decades, but since Hamas took control of the heavily populated enclave in 2007, there has been saber rattling and cross border tit-for-tat attacks on either side. Last year Israel sent troops and tanks into the Gaza border regions, the world’s largest and perhaps best armed prison camp, in another operation called “Hot Winter” that got a lot of press time when it finally went forward. Back then it was deemed a necessity to “deal with the constant rocket attacks” on Israel from Gaza. This year is no different. Like a bad episode of “Groundhog Day” the story plays again and again. Time Magazine reported: “Israeli officials say the strikes were necessary to force an end to the rocket attacks from Gaza, which is ruled by the radical Islamist group Hamas after it split from the Palestinian Authority … Palestinian militants in Gaza have long launched Kassam and other rockets at Israeli towns across the border, and in the past six weeks the number of attacks has increased dramatically.”

Perspective

The missile attacks are more an act of defiance than any real military threat. As the numbers show, few Israeli citizens die from these pin-prick missile strikes. In fact, only one death was reported since the cease fire dissolved in November, and three more have died in this latest escalation. This fact does not condone the rocket attacks in any way. It just points out their effect is more psychological than anything else. They are weapons of terror from an organization who has no other means of striking back at its antagonist. Israelis used similar terror tactics when they were the beleaguered people arriving in boats from Europe to seek a new homeland in Palestine. The Irgun used methods that would be called “terrorism” by any fair minded person today-- including blowing up the King David Hotel. Today they use other methods, 200 tons of precision guided munitions that flattened fifty police and security compounds supposedly run by Hamas, killing over 280 people by the second day. And don’t think the bombs only harm Hamas fighters. The pictures of bloodied children, grieving parents, and ashen faced civilians walking dazed and shocked near the targeted facilities show the indiscriminate effect of a 500 pound bomb, no matter how precise the delivery.

The notion of measured, proportional response, seems a thing of the past. The physical damage just delivered by Israel, in the space of a few horrific minutes, exceeds the damage of all Kassam and Grad rockets ever fired on Israel for the last twenty years--by a factor of two or three! Noted Middle East expert Juan Cole assessed that all rocket attacks since the year 2000 have killed a total of 23 Israeli citizens, deplorable, but only a tenth of the Palestinian death toll in this single series of Israeli counterattacks. “Since the Second Intifada broke out in 2000, Israelis have killed nearly 5000 Palestinians,” said Cole, “nearly a thousand of them minors. Since fall of 2007, Israel has kept the 1.5 million Gazans under a blockade, interdicting food, fuel and medical supplies to one degree or another. Wreaking collective punishment on civilian populations such as hospital patients denied needed electricity is a crime of war.”

Do the math. For each Israeli that dies at the hands of Hamas, Israel has killed 217 Palestinians. This has, in fact, been the death ratio over the years. Furthermore, it was Israel that broke this most recent cease fire, by demolishing an underground supply tunnel inside Gaza. Coverage of that incident was carried on CNN when it happened, but is now long forgotten in the war of words. Hamas did not launch rockets in reprisal until that event re-ignited the conflict, killing a single Israeli citizen. By day three the death toll in Gaza rose to 345, then 400, with hundreds more injured, including civilians, women and children. Which side is the aggrieved party here?

The War of Words

Diplomatically, the usual round of condemnations come from one side of the issue, and justifications from the other, all crossing the airwaves in the typical war of words accompanying the real fighting. Israel has said it is in “all out war” with Hamas, and Hamas has called for a “Third Intifada.” Protests broke out all through the Middle East. Syria broke off peace negotiations. Iran’s leading Mullah declared that all Muslims must defend the Palestinians. Nasrallah joined this chorus of protest, urging Hamas to stand fast and putting his Hezbollah fighters on alert. On Tuesday the 29th Grand Ayatollah Sistani of Iraq called on Arab nations to support the Palestinians in Gaza. There were demonstrations in Damascus, Cairo, Amman, Dubai and even London protesting the attacks. In any such engagement there is always the risk of escalation. Eight rockets rigged to fire on Israel in the north were found and defused on day two of the operation, and we must not forget that the 2006 Lebanon war began just two weeks after an outbreak of violence in Gaza.

The operation is also a foil used by Barak and Netanyahu as they position themselves for the upcoming election in February, so the success or failure of “Cast Lead” may have internal political repercussions. Olmert’s stock certainly declined after the failed 2006 operation in Lebanon. Israel’s timing, in the waning days of the Bush administration, was clever. Bush is the devil they know when it comes to the U.S. reaction to such a move. If the operation does expand on the ground, President Obama will have his first hot potato tossed to him within minutes of taking the job--the never ending cycle of violence in the Middle East, and his reaction will set the tone for future dealings in the region. Obama has remained silent on the matter, his advisors stating “we have one President at a time.” Israel may hope to conclude this business before the new president takes office, leaving Obama to take the role of peacemaker in that event.

The Military Situation

Israeli Prime Minister prime minister Ehud Olmert spoke to his nation and urged patience with the operation at the same time Israeli generals were stating the bombing was “just the beginning.” Olmert claimed the targets were chosen to minimize civilian casualties and that this was indeed a “war against Hamas.” These remarks can only lead us to believe that there will be more pain and violence ahead, as it will take an Israeli ground incursion of considerable size to bring the estimated 15,000 fighters of Hamas to heel. There are also another 5000 fighters of the Islamic Jihad in the enclave, and thousands more have asked to join the fight should Israel move in on the ground.

The Gaza strip is now a warren of tunnels, trenches and underground bunkers, which means any fighting on the ground will likely be bloody. It is the home turf of Hamas, and they know the terrain intimately. They have pre-positioned weapons caches, and explosives throughout the region, and organized their forces into five brigades. Israel, in my opinion, would need upwards of 50,000 troops to force a decisive conclusion in a pitched battle here. So far, 9200 Israeli reservists were called up to join units of the Parachute Brigade, Golani Brigade and 7th Armored Brigade as the ground forces began to muster. Tanks and troops were reported massing on the border and Palestinians in towns and hamlets near the assembly areas were reportedly fleeing the danger zone as the year ended. Elite Israeli commandos were making hit and run attacks late Sunday on the 28th, reportedly preparing the way for a larger ground assault, supported by armor. Unlike Lebanon, Gaza is a narrow 10 kilometer strip of land at many points, with little strategic depth. But the Israelis would do well to read up on Stalingrad before they enter Gaza in force. If that is too grand a battle to inform the present situation, then consider Fallujah.

Israeli newspaper Haaretz summed up the issue this way: “Operation Cast Lead is entering the problematic phase of any war: The first, surprise strike is over, the operational successes are less impressive, and the enemy is beginning to rally. Israel would want to continue hurting Hamas, but the goals readied before the operation are running out and the magical aerial solutions that do not involve loss of soldiers are coming to an end.” Fighting this war with air power alone, with ‘the bravery of being out of range,’ will simply not achieve any long term strategic goal.

The Israelis claim the aim of their operation is to “create a new security environment in the south,” but if that is to be achieved by force of arms it will take a major operation. Jerusalem Post reported: “Olmert, Barak and Livni want to continue to "hit, and hit hard" to create a new security "envelope," the senior official said. The official stressed that the three leaders were making a point of not saying that the objective of the operation was to topple Hamas or destroy it, although the language being used was that of war.” Talk is cheap, on both sides as this conflict progresses. The realities of war are something else, however, and I suppose we should be thankful that both sides refrain from truly carrying out their emboldened rhetoric.

I am of the belief that the Israelis will make a significant, but temporary incursion, perhaps to establish more of a buffer than their current concrete walls now provide, and then look for a negotiated solution brokered by the UN, US or another third party. The world would simply not tolerate any full scale engagement in the enclave that would actually be decisive. A Fallujah-like operation there would kill many thousands, becoming one of the bloodiest battles in the long history of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Tactically, the Israeli operation may seem bold, but it will not stop the rocket attacks from occurring again in the future because it simply cannot be pressed to a decisive conclusion without appalling casualties and loss of life. This means Hamas will survive. Hamas is not a place in Gaza City that can be occupied, nor is it a select group of leaders that can be “taken out,” nor is it the current rank and file of its fighters in the streets. Hamas is an idea, a cause, a resistance movement. That idea and cause will persist no matter what Isreal does in Gaza, and it will continue to use tactics and weapons the Western media will call “terror” while dismissing the awful effect of 500 lb bombs, tanks, and artillery used by Israel. Terror indeed.

It will take nothing less than a full scale engagement, with prolonged and bloody street fighting in Gaza City to “solve the problem” by military means. Does Israel have the stomach for such a battle, while all around it, enraged Arab populations will erupt in ever more violent protests? Some analysts believe Hamas welcomes this attack on the ground, feeling it can give Israel enough of a fight to cause casualties and win a phyrric victory, just as Hezbollah did in the 2006 Lebanon war. There’s nothing like martyrdom to keep an idea alive. It remains to be seen just how much stomach either side has for the realities of war they seem so eager to embrace.

Conclusions

Last year’s operation was also intended to solve the problem, and just as “Hot Winter” failed in every respect, so will “Cast Lead” fail to end the enmity that has endured for generations in the region. Western nations, and armies, no longer fight like they did in WWII. Large ground forces are seldom deployed to truly occupy and control a targeted region, enforcing unquestioned outcomes. (The entire US operation in Iraq, for example, was never more than a typical single corps sized operation conducted by the US Army during WWII. Eisenhower commanded one Canadian, two British and seven US army corps in Europe).

No, it will be air strikes, limited incursions by ground forces as before in Hot Winter, and the previous year’s brief foray into Lebanon. While Israel boasts of its military might, it does not have the will to truly engage in “all out war.” One can only imagine that their strategy, then, is to make the cost of these rocket attacks so painful that Hamas, whatever survives of it, will think twice before the next round of rocket launching. Hamas will think twice. ..but they will still launch their rockets. Both sides will declare victory and the whole operation will end with another cease fire for one side or another to break, and reignite the conflict in the months or years ahead. So the violence will go on, and on. The only certainty is that more people will die, and in the years ahead there will be further operations like this one, all failing to “solve the problem.” If we have learned anything these last eight years under Bush and Cheney, it is certainly that F-16’s solve very few problems in any way that matters in this world. They are superb for delivering a 500 pound bomb safely to its intended target. The explosion, the death, the destruction that follows, however, solve nothing. They merely deepen the hatred and ensure another round of retribution and violence will lie in store for the region in the new year ahead. Hamas has no F-16s. Instead they promise a new round of suicide bombings in reprisal.

What does Israel expect from the people of Gaza, surrounded by concrete walls and wire, harried by military checkpoints, cut off, starved, their access to fuel, electricity, food, medical supplies blockaded for months on end? One can certainly understand why the rockets come lancing over the walls at Israel in such a climate. What people would endure such treatment without fighting back in any way they could, just as the desperate Jews of the Warsaw Ghetto took up arms against the Nazis in WWII?

Israel will have peace when the walls come down, when the checkpoints vanish, when they realize Palestinians are human beings and treat them like brothers--and vice versa. The same can be said to Hamas. Elie Wiesel said it best: “Peace is our gift to each other.” But it does not look like either side wants to make that gift right now, so instead there will be endless war and enmity.

So Happy New Year to the Palestinians from your neighbors on the other side of the concrete walls and barbed wire. One would think, after enduring the insanity of places like Treblinka, Dachau, Buchenwald, Auschwitz, and the Warsaw Ghetto, that the Israelis would have had enough of walls and wire surrounded by armed troops hated because they occupy the former homeland of a beleaguered people—and claim it as their ancestral homeland. The Jews made a solemn vow “never again,” but yet they have made a new Warsaw Ghetto out of the Gaza strip, and the troops surrounding it now wear the same insignia that the old resistance fighters of the Ghetto were forced to wear by their German antagonists--the Star of David. My, how life has its ironies.

Article by: John Schettler

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