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FOOTPRINTS TO WAR?
In late April, 2007 Bahrain and the United States conducted the largest emergency response exercise ever undertaken there. The exercise assumed an Iranian missile strike on the
headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, located in Bahrain. As it is unlikely Iran would initiate such a strike out of the blue, this exercise has a hidden premise--that the US would strike Iran first, prompting
an Iranian response. (Only the world’s greatest democracy gets to launch surprise attacks on other nations these days).
On July 9th, 2007
Jerusalem Post reported that Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of Military Intelligence's Research Division, said that time to launch an effective military strike against Iran's nuclear installations was running out.
The Washington Post revealed new satellite photos of Iran's enrichment facility at Natanz which showed the digging of a tunnel that analysts believe is intended to conceal and protect
key elements of their nuclear program.
The Arab Times of Kuwait reported earlier this year that a US strike on Iran is imminent and administration insiders are already working on the speech President Bush will deliver to the
nation to justify the attack.
Sept 6, 2007
- Operation “Orchard” is launched by the 69th Israeli squadron, a raid on northeastern Syria. Russian made radar and AA defense systems are probed and western analysts conclude their performance was less than stellar.
On Sept 10, 2007
Turkey reported finding ditched Israeli reserve fuel tanks near the Iranian border. Apparently the IAF has been rehearsing avenues of approach, complete with mid air re-fueling supported by the gift of US air tanker planes. If that were not enough, Turkey has sent troops across the border into Northern Iraq against the Kurdish PKK there, and is reportedly massing forces north of the border. This will make for some rather delicate diplomacy between Washington and Ankara, for Turkey is a bona fide member of NATO.
On Sept. 28, 2007, Debka.com reported that “the entire staff of Russian nuclear engineers and experts employed in building the nuclear reactor at Bushehr abruptly packed
their bags and flew back to Russia.” This came as congress approved a $1.2 billion dollar arms shipment to replenish Israel’s war stocks, including 50 advanced GBU-28 bunker busters.
In late October, 2007 the Hearld of Scotland reported: “The US is secretly upgrading special stealth bomber hangars on the British island protectorate of Diego Garcia in the
Indian Ocean in preparation for strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, according to military sources.” The planes are reportedly being fitted with special racks so they can carry the massive 15-ton Ordnance
Penetrator (MOP) bombs to be used against Iran’s hardened facilities.
 Things are heating up in Syria as well. Syrian AA units fired on Israeli planes that
violated their airspace in early September and Israel reportedly bombed Hezbolla supply locations inside Syria prompting a formal complaint by Syria to the UN. The
Israeli Assennara newspaper said Israeli jets "bombed in northern Syria a Syrian-Iranian missile base financed by Iran ... It appears that the base was completely
destroyed". Then Ynetnews.com reported on Sept 14th that a “Washington official says Israeli surveillance shows a possible Syrian nuclear installation stocked by North Korea.” The word “possible”
is the clincher in that headline. Syrian President Assad has reserved the right to strike back at Israel at a time of his choosing, and it was reported that Iranian military representatives have notified
neighbors, like Turkey, that they will not stand by if Syria is attacked again.
In November, 2007, Kuwait-based Al-Jareeda newspaper reported that “Advisors to Syrian President
Bashar Assad are pressuring him to respond to the alleged IAF attack by landing a blow to an Israeli target.” The Jerusalem Post picked up the story and added: “the group advocating a military response
is being spearheaded by Assad's brother in law, who has met in recent days with senior Hizbullah and Hamas officials in an effort to draw up an operation plan.” The military has responded by removing a
number of military checkpoints on key roads leading to the Golan Heights, and calling up reserves. Some military analysts view this as a possible prelude to war, as easing up on traffic allows unsavory
sorts to travel in a formerly restricted area.
Israel re-issued a warning to its overseas citizens in Middle Eastern and Asian countries, advising
them to leave. After that they conducted a 133 city national air defense drill. Looks like they think they
will soon be even more unpopular. And an Israeli general advised citizens to have a “Rocket Room” prepared in their homes in case of another outbreak of war. Analysts believe Israel may soon move into
Gaza in force to suppress Hamas from that enclave on their strategic left flank.
Speaking of allies, British troops abandoning their posts near Basra have now been sent to the Iranian border, in response to a request by the US commanders on the ground.
Nukes on the move: The US has removed all 130 nuclear warheads from its long time European base
in Ramsetin, Germany. One might wonder where these weapons are headed? Meanwhile, the Guardian (UK) reports that the USAF is quietly building up squadron levels in Iraq, including the
powerful B-1B penetration bomber, originally designed to deliver nuclear weapons. Late in the summer, a curious story was briefly reported on CNN when a B-52 bomber apparently flew from Minot ND to
Barksdale AFB in Louisiana, a major mustering point for assets bound for the Middle East. The story alleged the bomber was carrying 5 ALCM cruise missiles with nuclear warheads. An Air Force grease
monkey was reportedly sacked when the news broke that this plane had overflown several US states “by mistake.” My friends, no ordinance is ever loaded on to a military plane by mistake. There is a rigid
sequence of protocols and security procedures that is followed in every instance, particularly for nuclear weapons. (And the plane usually loads 6 missiles, not 5, leading to speculation over where the
missing cruise missile has gone.) The “mistake,” if there was one, was that the story was somehow leaked to the media.
 The Navy has also conducted major fleet wargames off Guam to simulate the
cooperation required between land and sea based air assets--skills required for the mission against Iran. Additional fighters have recently been deployed there from the
US. High ranking Navy and Marine Corps Brass recently paid a visit to the 26th Marine Amphibious Group aboard the USS Baatan, at sea in the Persian Gulf. Six
of the seven available MEUs are now assigned to CENTCOM. These elite forces are trained for ship to shore amphibious assaults. USS Whidby Island, an amphibious troop carrier, has deployed to
CENTCOM with 500 marines and 4 assault hovercraft aboard. Another MEU on the Kearsarge was conveniently on station off the coast of Lebannon...just like last summer when a Marine ship was
quietly rehearsing landings in the Red Sea when Israel launched its little four week fiasco in Lebanon. Was the Kearsarge being positioned to rescue US nationals should things blow up there?
Other US naval units, including subs, Aegis class cruisers and minesweepers were also deployed to the Gulf recently, but these are normal escorts for the Carrier groups. Patriot missile batteries have
been staged to the Gulf as well, including Bahrain where a surge in hotel bookings by US military personnel has pushed occupancy rates past 90%. Insiders reveal that US investors have been advised
to pack up and get out of the region ASAP. (Perhaps they just had vacation plans?)
By January, 2008: Residents of Gaza, see fuel lines cut, power generators shut down and a general quarantine imposed by Israel.
Thousands were migrating into the Sinai, fleeing the ghetto as Israel continued to talk of a major operation planned. Then, the last week of January and early February saw no less than five sub-oceanic cables cut in the Mediterranean Sea and Persian Gulf. (Image courtesy
Cryptogon.com) The effect was to severely impact Internet service to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and Iran, where the central Iranian servers remained difficult to reach on Feb 3. By Feb 4, 2008 t
his story had changed to indicate no more than a 20% service interruption to Iran. Oddly, net service to Iraq, where US forces routinely utilize the Internet, and to Israel, was not affected. The
official explanation given was dragging ship anchors, but these cables are buried to prevent just that, and are all in marked no-go zones for ship navigation. Egyptian authorities monitoring sea traffic
cameras off Alexandria reported that no ships were trafficking the area where the cables were severed at the time of the outage. Needless to say, dragging one’s anchor is not a best practice utilized by
most ship captains. Even so, these fiber optic cables are not easy to cut and it is doubtful an anchor could have inflicted the damage...five times in five separate areas. The blogosphere was abuzz with
talk of an impending “incident” that would somehow be blamed on Iran. Others speculated that the outage was meant to harass the planned opening of the Iranian Oil Bourse, scheduled for the period
Feb 2-11, exactly the timeframe required for repairs to be implemented on the cables. Only time will tell.
Mother Jones reported that prominent US neo-con hawks were now profoundly disillusioned over
prospects of a US attack on Iran. Ex US United Nations Ambassador John Bolton was reputed to have said: "No one should be under any illusions about the United States' part in the Iranian situation in the
coming year." And neo-con idealog and strategist Podhoretz, chimed in with this war deflating
comment: "Unless Bush realizes or fulfills my fading hope of air strikes, it is undoubtedly up to Israel.”
Yet the dominant issue on the minds of Israel, beyond the celebration of its 60 year anniversary this summer, is what to do about Gaza. The pinprick rocket strikes from remote controlled launchers
continue. Debka.com reported February 11th, 2008 that Barak: “said he had directed the Israeli army command to prepare for a possible major assault in Gaza and for its consequences, but also to put
forward alternative options.” One can only wonder what alternative options” could mean.
On February 12, 2008 Imad Fayez Mughniyeh, a top Hezbollah security official, was assassinated in
Damascus by remote controlled car bomb. Israeli news reported that el Aviv sent Hezbollah a letter threatening another war against Lebanon.
March, 2008 came in like a Lion as Israeli probes into Gaza ignited into heavy fighting. Israel laid on
the heavy artillery and air strikes, and 70 Palestinians died in the first two days of fighting. The winter war, Israel’s long planned operation against Gaza, appears finally underway, and it has been dubbed:
“Operation Hot Winter.” The destroyer Cole and Marine assault carrier Nassau with leathernecks of
the 24th MEU moved with supporting vessels into the Eastern Med. These forces then moved to through Suez to the Persian Gulf and were replaced by the DDG Ross and Philippine Sea on March 6
when Jerusalem was struck by Palestinian terrorists. After live fire exercises using the NATO Sea Sparrow, Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM) and the Phalanx Close-in Weapons System (CIWS) in the off the US coast, CV Washington moved into the West Atlantic. Was big George sharpening her teeth?
A look at US naval deployments can also be very enlightening. Whenever the US wants to “put
a bit of stick about” as the Brits might say, they do it with CV battlegroups, (CVBGs). Net writers have frequently harped about the convergence of three US carriers in the Gulf when, in actuality, Admiral
Fallon has stated that the normal deployment there will be only 1 CV battlegroup. (The others are Marine Amphibious carriers, a potent shore to land attack force, but not to be confused with the big
CVs that hold the real aerial striking power.) I have tracked CVBG movements for months, and see nothing in them that signals a wartime buildup for an attack on Iran. The US continues to maintain only
1 strike carrier in the region on a routine basis, and there has been no multi-carrier buildup as is oft reported in the internet blogs. That said, Admiral Fallon suddenly announced his “retirement”
on March 11th, 2008, like so many other military professionals who have disagreed with Bush. Now that he is gone, watch the carriers closely, particularly at the next rotation overlap, scheduled for Sept 1-15.
Mid-April, 2008, Israeli jets and helicopters scrambled to intercept an unidentified light plane entering Israeli airspace as a nervous public looked on.
April 15, 2008, Debka.com reported that Israel has hooked up to the US Ballistic Missile Early
Warning System: “Israel requested the hook-up to the BMEWS for early warning to defend itself against Iranian missile attack.”
April 17, 2008, Syrian President Assad publicly stated that war with Israel was possible and that
Syria was preparing for this event. The Syrian 10th armored corps has deployed to the Massaneh crossing of Mount Hermon joining the Syrian 14th division, already deployed on the Israeli border.
April 27, 2008, Russian new sources reported: “A top Russian official is arriving in Tehran on Sunday to discuss security.”
April 28, 2008, Ynet news reported: “12 "enemy" Israeli warplanes violated Lebanese airspace before
noon Monday by flying missions over Beirut and elsewhere in the country. The IDF said it will not discuss its operational activities.” (Interesting how Israel violates international law on a regular and
ongoing basis, bombing other nations and overflying their airspace at a whim--just like the good old USA. The message: We got the planes, and we got the nukes. So we do whatever we want.) Also in
the news this day, Justin Raimondo of antiwar.com reported: “An American ship under contract with the U.S. Navy – the Western Venture – claims it was in international waters when Iranian speedboats
approached and failed to answer radio calls. Shots were fired on the American side.”
April 29, 2008: With Admiral Fallon conveniently moved into retirement, the one carrier deployment
policy for the gulf he instituted is now being reversed by Secretary Gates, who announced a second carrier battlegroup (CVBG Lincoln) would be sent “as a reminder to Iran.” CBS reported: “A second
American aircraft carrier steamed into the Persian Gulf on Tuesday as the Pentagon ordered military commanders to develop new options for attacking Iran.” This administration has consistently relieved or
removed professional military commanders who fail to adopt their hostile pro war attitude towards Iran. (See also: May 12, 2008)
May 5, 2008: Stories begin to circulate on the net that the US has revised plans regarding Iran, and
scaled them back to a punitive strike on an Iranian Quds Force training camp, ostensibly to “send a
message” to Iran about their support for resistance fighters in Iraq. I wonder what “message” Iran might
send in return? A Shahab III on a Saudi oil terminal would make a rather devastating point, neh?
May 12, 2008 - Kitty Hawk Battlegroup commander quietly moved aside for “no confidence,” as net
rumors speculate that the decks are being cleared for Iran. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has been mopping up US and Saudi backed Sunni militias in Beirut, further demonstrating its prowess as a light infantry
street fighting force. Israeli planes again violate Lebanese airspace as the USS Cole transits the Suez to stand off the coast.
May 18, 2008: Former UN Iraq weapons inspector Scott Ritter states that the plan on Iran now seems
to be a limited strike on alleged terrorist training camps near Tehran. He estimates this is a 90% probability, and believes that if the Iranians respond militarily, the US will then use this as a pretext to
widen its campaign against Iran.
Also on this day, Israeli web site Debka reported that the US castigated Israel for not intervening in the
recent ground fighting in Lebanon. Debka writes: “One US official said straight out to Olmert and Barak: For two years, you didn’t raise a finger when Hizballah took delivery of quantities of weapons,
including missiles, from Iran and Syria. You did not interfere with Hizballah’s military buildup in southern Lebanon then or its capture of Beirut now. IDF generals who were present at these
conversations reported they have never seen American officials so angry or outspoken.”
So it looks like the US position of Navy command control ship Mt. Whitney of the coast of the Levant
was in eager expectation of some fireworks. Now Olmert is off talking “peace” with Syria, ostensibly to
persuade Syria to accept concessions from Israel in exchange for weakening or severing its ties to Iran. The response was a visit by Syrian defense minister Hassan Turkmani to Tehran, affirming their
mutual defense pact.
On June 2, 2008, Israeli new site Debka.com reported: “...sources report that president George W.
Bush is closer than ever before to ordering a limited missile-air bombardment of the IRGC-al Qods Brigade’s installations in Iran. It is planned to target training camps and the munitions factories
pumping fighters, missiles and roadside bombs to the Iraqi insurgency, Lebanese Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza. Iran is geared up for counteraction.” Part of the Iranian
preparation, said the report, was to abandon key training installations in question, and move IRGC assets within regular Iranian army bases.
Meanwhile, Egypt reported the discovery of a large hidden arms cache in Sinai, including anti aircraft
missiles bound for Gaza. Olmert plans a week of “consultations:” in Washington soon. Could it be that
the final details of a joint US/Israeli plan for Iran, Hammas, Hizballah and the region as a whole are now being finalized?
Mid June, 2008: Israel conducted a massive air operation that analysts determine to be fundamental basic operational readiness planning for a potential strike on Iran.
Late June, 2008: Sy Hersh reports the US is ramping up its covert operations against Iran while Tel
Aviv and Tehran traded threatening press releases. Debka reported: “Iranian sources report that an explosion Monday, June 30, at Bidganeh near the town of Shahriar 40 kilometers east of Tehran
occurred at a military installation, not a civilian building as Tehran claimed.” Sabotage?
June 29, 2008: Adm Michael Mullen made a grand tour of all Israeli border zones and was reportedly briefed on Israel’s defense strategy in each zone
June 30, 2008: Iran has already threatened the Dimona reactor site in Israel if its installations are
attacked, and Prime Minister Olmert made an interesting visit to the facility. Iran now claims they will close the straits of Hormuz if attacked. US Navy Admirals were quick to reply that any interference
with oil traffic in the straits “would not be permitted.” Oil reached $142/barrel.
July 15, 2008: The UK Times reported Bush has tacitly given an amber light to Israel’s plan to strike
Iran. "Amber means get on with your preparations, stand by for immediate attack and tell us when
you're ready.” The article indicated that Bush has ruled out an American led attack and said, in effect,
“it’s all up to the Israelis.” The question now is whether Israel would want to launch such an operation
while Bush remains in office, or under a potential Obama administration that might be less likely to provide direct military aid. Given Israel’s constant head fakes against Hamas in Gaza, and their
inability to really control or eliminate either Hamas or Hizbollah, one must wonder about their will to launch an operation against Iran, where the economic consequences will by far outweigh any security
benefit they might hope to gain.
July 18-19, 2008: Stories circulate about Condi Rice being the primary force behind a diplomatic
rapprochement with Iran. The US opens diplomatic channels with Tehran, doing exactly what Obama
advised, while McCain call such dealings “reckless and irresponsible.” Either Bush is simply deferring
to Rice, giving her one last chance to pull off an agreement that will save face for his tattered Mid-East policy, or this is just a final smoke screen before someone takes military action. Has Cheney been
checkmated by Rice, or is this just a necessary overture before the fur flies.
July 21, 2008: “Operation Brimstone” begins off the Carolina and Florida coasts involving the CVBG Roosevelt, The USS Amphibious Carrier Iwo Jima with the 26th MEU, British light carrier Ark Royal,
and a host of supporting ships from NATO nations, including France and even Brazil. Net speculation abounds that this is a training exercise to prepare for an eventual naval blockade of Iran should the
Rice led “negotiations” fail to bear fruit. This would, of course, be an act of war on the part of the initiating governments. One has only to ask what the US would do if another group of nations, say
Russia and China, demanded we destroy all our existing nukes and then began to blockade our coastal ports with stealthy subs. We would certainly treat it as an act of war. Iran would see any
attempt at a blockade in a similar light, and their publicly stated response is, in a nut shell, if we can’t
use the high seas for commerce then neither can you. They have threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Israeli National Radio announced that their sources indicate Bush would order an
attack against Iran after the November election but before the new president, (certainly Barak Obama), takes office.
August, 2008 - Olmert announces he will step down, paving the way for more hard line proponents to
influence events on Iran. A series of ‘meetings’ with Iran involving US diplomatic personnel have the
Israelis wringing their hands. A deadline on Iran’s response to negotiation offers passes uneventfully. Iran trumpets that the US is in decline and hold to its right to enrich uranium for peaceful commercial
purpose. Russian giant Gazprom signs a major deal, and analysts claim the US has been outmaneuvered in regards to Iran and the Caspian Sea basin oil reserves, which is what all this hoopla has been about.
August 8, 2008 - Major fighting breaks out in Georgia and the Georgian army storms the capital in
Osseta to put down Russian backed separatist troops. Stories of Israeli drones and advisers with the Georgian forces circulate on the net. Russia responds by sending tanks and troops into Georgia, and
the fighting intensifies. The stakes for the West are high here: no less than final control of the 1000 mile oil and gas pipeline from The Caspian Basin to points on the Black Sea where tankers feed
Europe and the US a million barrels of fuel per day. This pipeline was curiously taken off line last week when PKK rebels in the Turkish region launched a successful sabotage attack in the artery. See all
these events as related to the chess game over Iran.
Aug 9, 2008 - Condi Rice states the US will not interfere in any Israeli led military operation against
Iran. Two additional US CVBGs are reportedly moving toward the Gulf. Forces from the recently concluded ‘Operation Brimstone’ including CVBG Roosevelt, however, remained off the east coast and
were not scheduled for any deployment until Sept 8. CVBG Ronald Regan is scheduled to relieve Lincoln under normal rotation plans.
Aug 14, 2008 - In the shadow of Russia’s operation into Georgia, the US has reportedly rejected an
Israeli request for military equipment that would improve its prospects of striking Iran. Further, US officials, including Joint Chief head Mullen have reportedly told Israel that an attack on Iran would be
against US interests at this time. (Washington Post) The contrast between public statements by Rice and private statements by Mullen is creating an interesting dissonance. It is clear to most analysts
that the last thing the US needs now is another outbreak of war around all that oil and natural gas in the Middle East. The carrier buildup reported for August 9 above could have been in response to US
intelligence on the Russian buildup prior to entering Georgia. The Russian 58th Army response to Georgia’s adventure into S. Ossetia was so swift that it had to be in building up in the early part of
August. The US was certain to have seen this by satellite, and the flattops started moving shortly thereafter.
Aug 30, 2008 - Israeli web site Debka reported that an “ultra-secret” Dutch covert intelligence operation
inside Iraq was canceled due to an “impending” US attack on Iran. (Nothing like ultra secret operations
to be routinely aired in Internet sites like this, eh?) Meanwhile, a retired Russian Admiral claimed the NATO flotilla on maneuver in the Black Sea could be eliminated by “one salvo from the Moskva.” Moskva is the Russian light carrier/heavy cruiser hybrid that is the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. It is
currently cruising off the coast of breakaway republic Abkhazia in a show of force and support. Coincidentally, the Command Control/Intel ship USS Mt. Whitney, also HQ for the US Sixth Fleet, has
reportedly entered the Black Sea on a “humanitarian” mission to Georgia.
In its own version of the Monroe Doctrine, Russia has publicly stated that any NATO operation against
the two renegade republics will be viewed as an attack on Russia. It has warned other border states to look to Georgia for an example of the medicine it will administer should they attempt to use force to
integrate dissident provinces. Clearly Mother Russia wants her wayward children to come home. Many analysts think Ukraine is next on the intimidation list, particularly the Crimean peninsula. The tension
created by these events has also led Russia to cozy up to Iran. Again, according to Debka, “ Moscow
has decided to finally finish building Iran’s nuclear reactor in the southern town of Bushehr before the end of the year.”
September 3, 2008 - Veteran News Writer Arnaud De Borchgrave, now a UPI editor at large for Middle
East Times added this little nugget about Israel’s involvement in Georgia: “Georgian Defense Minister
Davit Kezerashvili is a former Israeli who moved things along by facilitating Israeli arms sales with U.S. aid...Israeli UAV spy drones, made by Elbit Maarahot Systems, conducted recon flights over southern
Russia, as well as into nearby Iran. In a secret agreement between Israel and Georgia, two military airfields in southern Georgia had been earmarked for the use of Israeli fighter-bombers in the event of
pre-emptive attacks against Iranian nuclear installations. This would sharply reduce the distance Israeli fighter-bombers would have to fly to hit targets in Iran. And to reach Georgian airstrips, the Israeli air
force would fly over Turkey. The attack ordered by Saakashvili against South Ossetia the night of Aug. 7 provided the Russians the pretext for Moscow to order Special Forces to raid these Israeli facilities
where some Israeli drones were reported captured.
In light of such news, the whole Georgian incursion by Russia can be seen in an interesting new light.
Was Moscow attempting to neutralize these airfields to limit Israel’s options should they decide to strike Iran on their own?
Remember how Northern Alliance leader Masoud was assassinated in Afganistan just before 9/11 ? Well, Sept 3
also saw two or three other “near miss” stories cross the news. In Pakistan, shots were fired at Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani's motorcade near Islamabad's airport. In Saudi
Arabia, PressTV reported: “A Saudi security source has revealed that a military coup to overthrow army officers loyal to King Abdullah was successfully foiled.” Two major coup plots averted on the
same day! And this while the Pak military said they “just missed” an opportunity to capture Al Qaeda leader Zawahiri in the hinterland provinces.
Sept 7 - French President Sarcozy in Damascus for talks with the Syrians reportedly says an Israeli
strike on Iran is “inevitable.” As US carriers bunch up on rotation overlap this week, Haaretz.co reports
that Iran has ordered a 3 day national military exercise involving it AA defense grid. They go on to report that the US is clearly considering the likely Iranian response. Admiral James Winnefeld,
commander of the Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean was quoted in an article entitled Maritime Strategy in an Age of Blood and Belief in the U.S. Naval Institute's monthly Proceedings. The Iranian missile
response was described as ‘by far the most likely employment of ballistic missiles in the world today,
and it demands our immediate attention in the event of a need for a U.S. or NATO response.’ As usual,
the US wants to drag all its NATO allies into any conflict with Iran, but they will be as likely to join the fray as they were in Georgia.
Sept 8 - CVBG Lincoln, relieved by Reagan leaves CENTCOM 5th Fleet area of responsibility and
enters the Indian Ocean, bound for Pearl Harbor and then her home port in Everett WA. Contrary to numerous web rumors and stories, there is no “buildup” of US carriers in the Persian Gulf, but
something unusual is happening with the rotation schedule. Roosevelt is heading around the Cape of Good Hope to the Middle East, and Reagan is due to depart for home in October. This creates yet
another possible relief cycle in October this year, and the significance of that month should be obvious.
Sept 10 - One of Russia’s largest and most potent battlecruisers, the Kirov Class Peter The Great, is
now supposedly bound for the Carribean for “maneuvers” with the Venezuelan Navy. With Adm Kusnetzov heading for the Med, Russia is roiling out the cream of its surface navy these days. Hummm...
Sept 25. - As the American financial system teetered on the brink of collapse, House Bill HR 362,
sometimes called the “Blockade Bill” has been shelved. Antiwar.com reported: “The bill, authored by
Rep. Gary Ackerman (D - NY), urged the President, among other things, to prevent Iran from importing any refined petroleum products and demanded that he initiate an international effort to inspect “all
persons, vehicles, ships, planes, trains, and cargo entering or departing Iran.” Apparently the insanity of provoking or launching yet another war in this climate is now obvious even to dullards in the Neocon
camp. The dream is over. For the foreseeable future the US will have enough on its hands just holding the nation together in any semblance of its formal working order. You can all but forget another war
with Iran, at least one initiated by the US.
Nov-Dec, 2008 - As the year ended, dominated by financial news, sluggish sales, unemployment,
volatility in the stock markets, the war buzz receded to the background. Yet Israel quietly announced it
was willing to “go it alone” against Iran. The Iranians apparently take such pronouncements seriously. On December 5 they launched a massive 60 vessel war game spanning 50,000 square miles of the
Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Straits of Hormuz. Israeli web site Debka claimed the Carrier John C. Stennis had been rushed to the Gulf to join Teddy Roosevelt on station there when the Mumbai terror
incident occurred, but Stennis was off the US west coast at that time and returned to Bremerton Washington having completed it’s pre-deployment maneuvers.
January 2009 - Israel launches “Operation Cast Lead” in Gaza with massive air strikes and a ground
incursion that really serve no strategic purpose by the time it concludes. Full day by day coverage of that operation can be found here.
 February 2009
- Elections are held in Israel and Benjamin Netenyahu is eventually asked to form a coalition government. A conservative hawk, Netenyahu will most likely face the issue of Iranian nuclear enrichment some
time in 2009.
March 2009 - Jerusalem Post reveals that four key strategic considerations have changed in the Iran equation. I quote them here: “ First, Iran has proven it can
successfully launch a satellite into outer space as it did on February 2.... Second, the International Atomic Energy Agency last week admitted that it had underestimated Iran's
nuclear stockpile by about one-third. ... Third, Iran has ramped up its enrichment program with thousands of new homegrown, highly advanced centrifuges. ...Fourth, Binyamin Netanyahu has just
become prime minister of Israel. He is determined to take action before - not after - Iran achieves its nuclear potential. This creates a volatile, hair-trigger situation that could explode at any moment.”
April, 2009 - The London Times reports that Israel is training to carry out a strike on Iran on short
notice, a matter of days or even hours after being given the go sign. Meanwhile, Harretz reported: “The Home Front Command is preparing to hold the largest exercise ever in Israeli history, scheduled to
take place in about two months, in hopes of priming the populace and raising awareness of the possibility of war breaking out.” The nation wide exercise will last a full week and is scheduled for June
, 2009. It appears Israel is determined to go to war to prevent Iran from the potential of obtaining a nuclear weapon. Israel is believed to have more than 100 nuclear warheads now. Analysts believe Iran
would have only enough fissile material for a single weapon in the 2010 to 2013 timeframe.
May, 2009 - Iran continued to arm itself with missiles, following a strategy that has been proven
successful against the conventional military operations of nations like the US and Israel. Reports emerged that Iran was scaling back production of the liquid fueled Shahab-3 Missile in favor of the
more stealthy solid fueled Sejil II. When mounted on mobile launchers provided by China, this missile will be difficult to find until launch compared to the Shehab, which takes hours of preparation prior to
launch from fixed sites. Reports also came in claiming Israel was moving missile capable subs to the Persian Gulf, (which would seem to me to be a routine deployment).
June, 2009 - With the troubled reelection of Amadinijad and related protests, both sides continue to
test and deploy military systems that would be used in any imminent conflict. Again China appears to be aiding Iran, sharpening her teeth with the sale of the HY2 Hai Ying “Sea Eagle” missile, a Chinese
version of the deadly Russian designed Moskit 3M80 “Sunburn” anti-ship supersonic cruise missile. Traveling at speeds of 1500 to 1700 mph, the missile is a deadly threat to US carrier task forces, and
was designed to defeat ships protected by the American Aegis missile defense system. On the Israeli side the US Pacific Missile Test Range centered on Naval Station Pt. Mugu will provide a range for the
testing of the Arrow III ABM system off the California Coast in mid July. The teeth on both sides are sharpening.
July, 2009 - CampaignIran.org reports: “Two Israeli missile class warships have sailed through the
Suez Canal ten days after a submarine capable of launching a nuclear missile strike, in preparation for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.” Other news in the early summer included talk of
European and US support for an Israeli attack on Iran in exchange for real Israeli compromise on Palestine after it all blows over. Iran continued to brush off Israeli threats and promised massive
retaliation if attacked. In effect, nothing has changed. The tension on the spring continues to mount as a report of an Iranian nuclear capability inside of 6 months added fuel to the rumor mill.
Sept, 2009: The game of how many centrifuges do I actually have gets batted about the news and
then disappears. Obama makes some tough sounding statements about Iran’s need to “come clean.” Israeli general again state that it may be necessary to take care of the problem. Obama gets the
Nobel peace prize? (For doing what, exactly?) Everyone is too much enamored of the false “recovery” to focus much on Iran.
Oct, 2009: Debka, a perpetual source of news on the imminent attack, comes out with this one: “
According to an unconfirmed report in the French Le Canard Enchaine of Wednesday, Oct. 14, Israel is preparing to bomb Iranian nuclear sites and pro-Iranian targets across the Middle East after
December 2009. The prestigious satirical weekly reports that the IDF has notified special forces reservists abroad to get ready to return home in November for immediate drafting.
A former Israeli deputy defense minister, Efraim Sneh, commented to US and British media several
times in the past week that if the US fails to rally fellow powers' support for tougher sanctions against Iran by Christmas, Israel will attack.”
Nov 2009: Iran is reportedly building a network of dummy missile silos, complete with fake AA defense
installations to misdirect any potential attacker. This while they increase output of their primary offensive weapon--missiles. Meanwhile, top US intelligence officials have reportedly huddled with their
Israeli counterparts in Israel. An Iranian minister claimed: “Neither sanctions nor an attack will stop our
nuclear work.” Frankly, the world doesn’t seem very concerned about it, All thoughts are on the flagging economy and dismal prospects for Christmas sales.
Jun 2010 - Internet talk of an “imminent” attack on Iran has again reached a fever pitch in late June of
2010 after Iran continued to balk at talks regarding its nuclear program.
The normal US CVBG relief cycle that saw USS Truman transit the Suez Canal and head for the
Persian Gulf while the Eisenhower, (completing its tour) still remained on duty again got many Internet sites in a lather about an impending attack. They have also lumped in the Marine Amphibious carrier
Nassau to claim “Three US Carriers” are massing opposite Iran. (Again, this is a normally scheduled ship/unit rotation).
Even Cuba’s Fidel castro has suggested that there will be fireworks before July 4th. And rumors fly
that Israel has cut a deal with the Saudis for use of an free airspace corridor. The Gulf Daily News reported “Preparations are underway to launch the military attack from Azerbaijan and Georgia, reports
our sister paper Akhbar Al Khaleej, quoting military sources. Israel was, in fact, training pilots in Turkey to launch the strike and was smuggling planes into Georgia using Turkish airspace, they said.”
Always ready with such news, the Israeli web site Debka reported: “In a rare move, Iran has declared a
state of war on its northwestern border, debkafile's military and Iranian sources report. Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps men and equipment units are being massed in the Caspian Sea region
against what Tehran claims are US and Israeli forces concentrated on army and air bases in Azerbaijan ready to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.”
Will it Ever End?
It seems the awful combination of God, Guns and Black Gold remains as explosive as ever in the
Middle East. In spite of the “Surge,” the slowly simmering kettle in Iraq was a mirage. It was not enforced by US troops. The militias have simply grown tired of killing one another, as was inevitable.
US troops have pulled out of the cities but are still chained to an extended occupation, with no definite exit date for the foreseeable future as the oil companies try to nail down their much prized long term
development contracts. Who won the contract for the prized Rumalia oil fields? China! How’s that for delivering the fruits of war to the wrong address!
Afghanistan is experiencing rising violence, and now surpasses Iraq for US military death totals, with
no end in sight. Israel clearly achieved nothing in Lebanon last summer. Should they meet with similar results this time against the hardened and determined fighters of Hamas in Gaza, the conventional
armies of the West, the most effective military fighting forces in the world, will have suffered a severe check. If the stalled war in Iraq is not evidence enough, it may finally dawn on the war planners that
“asymmetrical warfare,” (the low level tactics of car bombs, IEDs, small unit ambushes, assassinations, terror and propaganda) have trumped the prowess of highly trained conventional
armies once and for all.
If there is anything we have learned about the Middle East, it is to expect the worst of any potential
outcome. Bush touted the arrival of democracy there, and then watched Hamas get voted into office in Palestine. The long hot summer passed without Israel dragging us into a fight with Iran that neither the
US Army nor the American people were quite prepared for. Israel will just have to live with Iran, or go it alone if it wants to have another war. The US is passing on this one. With the economy sliding into an
abyss here in the states, Americans are clearly not prepared for another Middle East flare up at home. Oil has already set record highs in 2008, and it is clear that any new war in the Middle East could only
worsen the already grave economic situation in the world. Shell we add $5/gallon gasoline to the emerging depression in the US?
Stay tuned for future updates.
John Schettler
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